Premier League title race probabilities 2026/27
Premier League title race probabilities for the 2026/27 season: title chance, UCL chance, relegation risk, and expected points.
| Club | Title % | UCL % | Relegation % | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 47.2% | 93.4% | 0.0% | 72.0 |
| Manchester City | 21.0% | 80.2% | 0.0% | 67.0 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 16.6% | 74.8% | 0.0% | 65.0 |
| Chelsea | 3.4% | 36.4% | 1.2% | 57.0 |
| Liverpool | 3.0% | 35.8% | 1.6% | 57.0 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 1.4% | 33.2% | 2.8% | 57.0 |
| Brentford | 1.8% | 32.4% | 2.4% | 56.0 |
| Aston Villa | 3.0% | 26.0% | 4.6% | 55.0 |
| Everton | 1.2% | 20.4% | 6.6% | 54.0 |
| Leeds United | 0.4% | 20.2% | 4.6% | 53.0 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 0.4% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 51.0 |
| Newcastle United | 0.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 51.0 |
| Fulham | 0.4% | 6.6% | 17.0% | 48.0 |
| Manchester United | 0.2% | 6.6% | 18.0% | 48.0 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.0% | 2.6% | 30.2% | 46.0 |
| Ipswich Town | 0.0% | 3.2% | 25.6% | 45.0 |
| Coventry City | 0.0% | 2.2% | 34.6% | 44.0 |
| Crystal Palace | 0.0% | 3.2% | 37.0% | 43.5 |
| Hull City | 0.0% | 0.8% | 41.6% | 42.5 |
| Sunderland | 0.0% | 1.0% | 53.4% | 41.0 |
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