Ligue 1 title race probabilities 2026/27
Ligue 1 title race probabilities for the 2026/27 season: title chance, UCL chance, relegation risk, and expected points.
| Club | Title % | UCL % | Relegation % | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 72.6% | 97.2% | 0.0% | 67.0 |
| Lyon | 6.6% | 50.0% | 0.8% | 55.0 |
| Lille | 5.0% | 40.4% | 0.4% | 54.0 |
| Paris FC | 4.2% | 40.8% | 1.0% | 53.0 |
| AS Monaco | 3.6% | 33.6% | 1.4% | 53.0 |
| Rennes | 2.8% | 31.4% | 0.8% | 52.0 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 2.2% | 28.4% | 2.0% | 51.0 |
| Lens | 1.6% | 22.6% | 1.8% | 50.0 |
| Stade Brestois | 0.2% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 46.0 |
| OGC Nice | 0.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 46.0 |
| Lorient | 0.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 46.0 |
| Strasbourg | 0.4% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 46.0 |
| Toulouse | 0.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 45.0 |
| Auxerre | 0.0% | 3.2% | 21.8% | 42.0 |
| Le Mans | 0.0% | 1.2% | 48.4% | 37.0 |
| Troyes | 0.0% | 1.4% | 46.4% | 37.0 |
| Angers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 58.4% | 35.0 |
| Le Havre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 78.6% | 31.0 |
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