Primeira Liga title race probabilities 2026/27
Primeira Liga title race probabilities for the 2026/27 season: title chance, UCL chance, relegation risk, and expected points.
| Club | Title % | UCL % | Relegation % | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 57.6% | 95.8% | 0.0% | 73.0 |
| Benfica | 30.6% | 90.2% | 0.0% | 69.0 |
| Sporting CP | 10.0% | 67.2% | 0.0% | 64.0 |
| Santa Clara | 0.8% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 55.0 |
| FC Arouca | 0.4% | 9.6% | 0.0% | 53.0 |
| Academico Viseu | 0.4% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 53.0 |
| Sporting Braga | 0.2% | 7.6% | 0.8% | 51.0 |
| Gil Vicente | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 47.5 |
| Famalicão | 0.0% | 0.8% | 5.8% | 46.0 |
| Moreirense | 0.0% | 0.4% | 4.0% | 44.0 |
| Alverca | 0.0% | 0.4% | 8.4% | 42.0 |
| Vitória Guimarães | 0.0% | 0.8% | 8.8% | 41.0 |
| Estrela Amadora | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.0% | 37.5 |
| Nacional | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.2% | 34.0 |
| Marítimo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.4% | 34.0 |
| Casa Pia AC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.8% | 34.0 |
| Rio Ave | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.8% | 33.0 |
| Estoril | 0.0% | 0.0% | 65.0% | 31.0 |
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