La Liga title race probabilities 2026/27
La Liga title race probabilities for the 2026/27 season: title chance, UCL chance, relegation risk, and expected points.
| Club | Title % | UCL % | Relegation % | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 62.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 83.0 |
| Real Madrid | 22.2% | 98.6% | 0.0% | 77.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | 15.0% | 96.2% | 0.0% | 74.0 |
| Real Betis | 0.6% | 79.2% | 0.0% | 65.0 |
| Real Sociedad | 0.2% | 39.2% | 0.2% | 59.0 |
| Athletic Club | 0.0% | 21.6% | 2.6% | 53.0 |
| Villarreal | 0.0% | 13.4% | 5.6% | 52.0 |
| Sevilla | 0.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | 52.0 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 0.0% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 51.0 |
| Celta Vigo | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 50.0 |
| Deportivo Alavés | 0.0% | 5.4% | 13.4% | 47.0 |
| Getafe | 0.0% | 1.8% | 16.0% | 46.0 |
| Espanyol | 0.0% | 2.4% | 18.0% | 45.0 |
| Elche | 0.0% | 2.2% | 21.6% | 44.0 |
| Levante UD | 0.0% | 0.8% | 25.0% | 44.0 |
| Valencia | 0.0% | 1.6% | 21.8% | 44.0 |
| Osasuna | 0.0% | 1.6% | 21.6% | 44.0 |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña | 0.0% | 0.6% | 25.8% | 42.0 |
| Racing Santander | 0.0% | 0.8% | 33.4% | 42.0 |
| Málaga | 0.0% | 0.0% | 82.0% | 32.0 |
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