Bundesliga title race probabilities 2026/27
Bundesliga title race probabilities for the 2026/27 season: title chance, UCL chance, relegation risk, and expected points.
| Club | Title % | UCL % | Relegation % | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 56.0% | 96.6% | 0.0% | 67.0 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 21.4% | 77.8% | 0.0% | 62.0 |
| RB Leipzig | 6.4% | 52.2% | 0.2% | 57.0 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 6.4% | 47.0% | 0.0% | 56.0 |
| Freiburg | 6.0% | 42.8% | 0.6% | 55.0 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 0.4% | 18.2% | 1.8% | 50.5 |
| Werder Bremen | 1.2% | 19.6% | 3.4% | 50.0 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.6% | 15.0% | 4.6% | 48.0 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 0.4% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 47.0 |
| SV 07 Elversberg | 0.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 46.0 |
| Hoffenheim | 0.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 45.0 |
| Augsburg | 0.2% | 2.8% | 14.2% | 43.0 |
| FC Köln | 0.0% | 0.6% | 26.2% | 39.5 |
| Hamburger SV | 0.0% | 0.4% | 34.8% | 38.5 |
| Union Berlin | 0.0% | 0.8% | 42.2% | 37.0 |
| Paderborn | 0.0% | 0.6% | 41.8% | 36.5 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.0% | 0.6% | 47.2% | 36.0 |
| Schalke 04 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 66.0% | 33.0 |
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